More hysteria from Geithner on raising the debt ceiling, predicting double-dip recession

Before we get into Geithner's claims, let me briefly use Obama's 2012 budget to illustrate how much spending would still occur even if the debt ceiling isn't lifted. Revenue will be about 70.5% of spending. Presumably, national defense spending could be reduced somewhat.

Social Security 20.04%
Medicare 12.86%
Medicaid and Children's health insurance 7.28%
Defense 19.27%
Interest 6.31%
Federal Law Enforcement and Immigration 0.81%
Veterans benefits 3.26%
Response to natural disasters 0.4%

Total 70.23% -- this would imply a small surplus or allow some other spending on "crucial" operations

A default would be bad, but failure to lift the debt ceiling does not come close to meaning a default will occur. This type of fear mongering is irresponsible.

Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner said if Congress fails to lift the debt ceiling and the U.S. defaults on its obligations “this abrupt contraction would likely push us into a double dip recession,” painting the most explicitly dire prediction to date of the consequences of inaction.
In a heavily-anticipated response to Sen. Michael Bennet, D-Colo., who asked Geithner to document the economic and fiscal impacts of failing to lift the statutory debt limit, the Treasury secretary detailed a chain reaction that would cripple the economy, costing jobs and income.
“A default would inflict catastrophic far-reaching damage on our nation’s economy, significantly reducing growth and increasing unemployment,” said Geithner in the letter to Bennet which was dated May 13. “Even a short-term default could cause irrevocable damage to the economy."
Geithner has imposed an August deadline for Congress to lift the $14.3 trillion debt ceiling, but lawmakers are still negotiating over Republican demands to tie the move to spending cuts. And a portion of the GOP still remains skeptical about the need to act by the deadline at all, arguing that the consequences have been overstates.
In the letter Geithner walked through the doomsday scenario he has been describing on the Hill. Default would cast doubt on the full faith and credit of the U.S., which would scare away investors and enable those remaining to demand higher interest rates on Treasury securities, which would have far-reaching negative ramifications. Increased borrowing costs would extend to families, businesses, and local governments, he said. . . .

So what impact did the previous big shutdown have on GDP during the fourth quarter of 1995 and the first quarter of 1996? If you can see a negative impact on national income, you have a better eye than I do (see graph here).